***(Reader warning: Sorry little long, might want to print it)***
The 2009 NFL draft takes place this Saturday. Since the NFL is far and away the top sporting league in America and the absence of football news over the past few months leaves fans hanging, the NFL Draft is always a big deal. Big enough of a deal that millions of idiots like me devote time trying to predict what teams are going to take what players. God Bless America.
A couple of notes on the draft as a whole:
- This draft isn’t as sexy as many past drafts. There isn’t a Barry Sanders or a Peyton Manning or a Reggie Bush in this draft. There are a lot of good players, there are very few, if any, great players.
- As many as seven teams in the top 10 are trying to trade down. The NFL’s dirty little secret that needs to be addressed in the next CBA will be the issue of insane salaries for top draft picks. Paying unproven commodities the outrageous money these kids command isn’t good business. There is a reason why the Patriots always trade down and the Raiders and Browns trade up. No coincidence.
- The economy is affecting team’s decisions. I have read across the board that teams aren’t going to take the best player available, they are going to draft by the best value from a player depending on the ability to sign the player. This is going to hurt new contracts and potential holdouts. Count on this being a big story this weekend.
- I think we could see some really fun trades play out. The NFL has traditionally been a really anti-trade league but that is changing. We saw the Cassel and Cutler blockbusters this offseason, that just rarely happened before in the NFL. I think we might see guys like Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Braylon Edwards, or other big names moved around.
Okay here we go, the Detroit Lions are on the clock!
1) Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
Why it makes sense: The Lions insist that they will not draft anyone unless a deal is in place. Stafford and the Lions are currently in negotiations and one will think they will strike a deal sometime tomorrow night. Stafford gives the Lions hope of a new future. A potential franchise QB that could save the team and give the city of Detroit a boost they need. Ton of experience, played against great competition in the SEC, HUGE arm, and a 38 Wonderlic test. He has already told people he’ll be the #1 pick and Detroit needs a sexy pick to appease fans after going 0-16 last year. Stafford is the guy.
Why it doesn’t: When teams rebuild, QB isn’t the best position to start. Only about 30% of 1st round QB’s work out successfully. The safer, and cheaper pick, would be one of the OT’s or LB Aaron Curry. Stafford comes with the probable price tag of $75 million with $40 million guaranteed. That isn’t an easy pill to swallow with a 30% probability of success.
2) St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, OT Baylor
Why it makes sense: The Rams need a bookend tackle to replace Orlando Pace and Smith fits the bill. The Rams are on the brink of a complete organizational overhaul and LT is the best place to start rebuilding. He can step in and start right away.
Why it doesn’t: The Rams could go with Sanchez to learn under aging QB Marc Bulger or address the defensive side of the ball with LB Aaron Curry. Or they could decide they like OT Eugene Monroe better and go with him. There are lots of needs and the Rams may decide O-Line can be addressed later or through free agency.
3) Kansas City Chiefs – Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
Why it makes sense: Curry is widely considered the best pure player in the draft. He will be easy to sign and can anchor Scott Pioli’s new defense.
Why it doesn’t: Non-rush linebackers are very rarely drafted this high. I think I might be alone on this, but if Curry isn’t the pick here, I think he may fall out of the top 7. The media loves him but I’m not sold on his value this high. I think DT BJ Raji might be the pick or Eugene Monroe or maybe they go after Crabtree to give Cassel a new downfield weapon. I think Curry is the safe pick, but I don’t think it is the best pick for this team. Expect Scott Pioli to field trade offers for those teams looking to move up to take Sanchez.
4) Seattle Seahawks – Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
Why it makes sense: I had a lot of difficulty with this pick. Many people think Seattle will take Sanchez here but I think they are just building trade bait hype to scare teams. I think Seattle knows they have too many other needs besides QB right now and landing a line anchor like Monroe would be too good to pass up.
Why it doesn’t: I fully expect Seattle to field serious offers to try to move out of this place for someone to come up and get Sanchez. Then again, the pick could be Sanchez and I’m just off-base, he could learn under Hasselbeck but I think this team can win without blowing up the whole team to rebuild. Sanchez will be very costly at #4, they don’t need that hassle.
5) Cleveland Browns – Bryan Orakpo, DE/LB Texas
Why it makes sense: Orakpo was called “the best player in the draft” by ESPN’s Michael Smith and has freakish athletic talent. While there are a ton of rumors and questions around the Browns’ offense, the defense needs to be improved before the team can win anything. Orakpo can be a little Demarcus Ware for the Browns.
Why it doesn’t: There are tons of rumors around Cleveland. If they trade Brady Quinn to the Broncos (Like I think is secretly going to happen), then they will probably take Sanchez. If they trade Braylon Edwards, like they want to, I think the pick will probably have to be Crabtree. But if neither of those deals goes down, the Browns should go with Orakpo.
6) Cincinnati Bengals – Andre Smith, OT Alabama
Why it makes sense: The Bengals went after Tank Johnson this offseason so let’s assume they won’t go with Raji. While they lost Housh to Free Agency, WR isn’t the biggest concern, and there are holes everywhere else. So what do you do? Like I always say, if there is a great OT available, take him. Plus his character issues fit well with the Bengals, no?
Why it doesn’t: The player that was once considered the best player in this draft, Smith has been a poster child for dysfunction. Trouble with an agent made him miss the Sugar Bowl. Showed up out of shape at the combine, left early, and fired his agent last week. Red flags everywhere. Cincinnati could go with Crabtree to replace Housh as well. Someone could theoretically try to swoop in here if Sanchez is still available.
7) Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
Why it makes sense: Oakland would be thrilled if Crabtree falls into their lap. He provides Al Davis with the flashy type of player he loves, gives Jamarcus Russell a viable target, and stimulates Raider nation with a sexy pick. The fan base needs something to root for.
Why it doesn’t: Knowing Jacksonville picks next, teams might make a last ditch effort for Sanchez if he is still around. Oakland might also have other WR’s higher than Crabtree (Maclin or Heyward-Bey). And Crabtree will likely come more expensive than those other WR’s available. And knowing Al Davis, they might end up picking a Venezuelan futbol striker to shore up the kickoff game. Who knows with this team.
8 ) Jacksonville Jaguars – Mark Sanchez, QB USC
Why it makes sense: If Sanchez falls to 8, Jack Del Rio is going to pull the trigger. I don’t think any real football fan believes David Garrard is a franchise QB. I like the guy, but let’s be honest with each other.
Why it doesn’t: Sanchez is going to be very expensive and like I said above, QB’s in the first round are rarely successful. He only had one year at USC (think Akili Smith) and playing at USC is always a red flag for NFL teams. Jacksonville has a lot of holes, so addressing other needs with a Raji or Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin also makes a lot of sense for the Jags.
9) Green Bay Packers – BJ Raji, DT Boston College
Why it makes sense: If Raji falls to 9, he could be one of the steals of the draft. Clearly the best DT in the draft, Green Bay would have a tough time passing on him at this point. There were false rumors of a positive test for weed that sort of hurt him but proved to be nothing. The guy is a stud in the Vince Wilfork mode.
Why it doesn’t: Green Bay might worry about Raji’s character but they shouldn’t. There are other holes. Everette Brown could be the pick, maybe even OT Michael Oher, or a WR for Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is a well run tight-lipped organization. Tough to predict.
10) San Francisco 49ers – Michael Oher, OT Ole Miss
Why it makes sense: The 49ers are another team with a ton of flaws on both sides of the ball. And like I said above, a team that is in terrible shape should address OT first. Since there are four really good OT’s in this draft, San Francisco takes Oher while he is still there. If they are going to improve, they need protection and solid run blocking.
Why it doesn’t: Oher is rising on many draft boards but he still might be a bit of a reach at number 10. I think San Francisco could go with a WR or a secondary player but there aren’t any with enough value at this 10 spot. The strength of the 49ers is the front 7 on defense, so while there are a ton of great DE/LB prospects still on the board, I think SF goes in a different direction.
11) Buffalo Bills -Aaron Maybin, DE Penn State
Why it makes sense: Since all four of the tackles are gone, Buffalo is forced to pick on the other side of the line. The Bills pass rush was anemic last year. Maybin is a guy who can step right in and start and be a difference maker on defense. This could also allow Buffalo to trade or release Kelsay, Schobel, or Denney to clear cap space. Penn State defenders are notoriously gritty and solid NFL players, Poz and Maybin could be quite a Nittany Lions duo.
Why it doesn’t: If one of the four tackles are still available, I believe Buffalo will take them. The only exception would be if Orakpo is still available where I believe Buffalo would take him in about four seconds. Some are saying Oklahoma TE Brandon Pettigrew here. While I like Pettigrew ALOT, he is just too much of a stretch at #11.
12) Denver Broncos – Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
Why it makes sense: Jackson is shooting up every draft board with his pure athletic build and pass rushing instincts. The Broncos clearly need to upgrade a flaky defense and Jackson is a great fit.
Why it doesn’t: I don’t believe Josh McDaniels is happy with Kyle Orton being his starting QB so we might see a trade for Quinn, Campbell, or a play at Sanchez if possible. Denver could also address their aging secondary with a Malcolm Jenkins or a Vontae Davis.
13) Washington Redskins, Everette Brown DE Florida State
Why it makes sense: Washington loves the flashy picks but Brown is good value here and can help a weak front for the Redskins immediately. He has the flexibility to be an OLB in pass coverage or a great third down pass rusher.
Why it doesn’t: I don’t expect Washington to pick Brown because it just isn’t how they tick. I think we may see a Campbell trade by making a move for Sanchez or something else. Either way, I don’t think the Redskins will stay in this position so Brown being a Redskin is probably not going to happen.
14) New Orleans Saints – Clay Matthews, LB USC
Why it makes sense: The Saints are rumored to be taking a running back but I think it is a smokescreen. Jonathan Vilma didn’t exactly work out last year and the defense needs help. Matthews had an unbelievable pro day at USC and was great at the combine. It may be a bit of a surprise that he goes before the other two USC linebackers but I think he is the safest pick here.
Why it doesn’t: Unless I’m wrong, the Saints may actually go RB with a Moreno or Well but I doubt it. I guess CB remains a possibility with equal value available in Jenkins, Davis, and others. Or they go with one of the other linebackers Maualuga or Cushing.
15) Houston Texans – Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
Why it makes sense: If Jenkins is available at 15, it would be very difficult to pass on him for a team that struggled in pass coverage last year. Jenkins is a highly decorated college player with loads of experience in a big time conference. The speedster could probably step right in and help Houston limit the big play threat.
Why it doesn’t: Houston may be tempted to go linebacker instead of secondary. There are also running back and wide receiver value at #15 that could help an offense in need of a spark besides Andre Johnson.
16) San Diego Chargers – Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri
Why it makes sense: The Chargers are pretty solid as a team without any glaring needs. They had a dissapointing season last year but are definitely built to win now. Maclin provides NFL speed as big play threat for emerging superstar QB Philip Rivers and gives the lackluster WR core a much needed boost.
Why it doesn’t: San Diego could literally draft any position or anyone with this pick and I wouldn’t be surprised. The remaining two USC linebacks will be tempting. I don’t see them taking a RB as they reportedly might after resigning Michael Turner and LT this offseason. There is only so much money that can be tied up with one position.
17) New York Jets – Josh Freeman, QB Kansas State
Why it makes sense: New coach Rex Ryan will be very tempted to land a potential franchise QB with his new team. Freeman is an interesting draft story with people valuing him all over the place. #17 might be considered a bit of a reach but everything out of Jet land is that Kellen Clemens isn’t going to be the long-term solution and Freeman provides a ton of upside.
Why it doesn’t: First round QB’s are always a gamble. The Jets could address WR here or LB or even running back with Thomas Jones holding out. If Freeman is the pick, I would expect heavy boos from the Jets fans in attendance at the draft.
18) Denver Broncos – Brian Cushing, LB USC
Why it makes sense: With Cushing and Jackson the Broncos defense just got a whole lot better. McDaniels comes from the Belicheck mold, he takes character guys with good Wonderlic’s that play with grit and hustle. I’m not sure how well Cushing will transition to the speed of the pro game but the pick makes too much sense not to place him here.
Why it doesn’t: Maualuga remains an option but I don’t think McDaniels wants to deal with the potential headache. They may again think about going with Vontae Davis or Darius Butler but Cushing seems like a great fit here. I guess the option is open to take Wells or Moreno to be a RB but Denver signed a bunch of RB’s this offseason to compete for the job. There are bigger holes on the D side.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee
Why it makes sense: Tampa’s defense absolutely collapsed at the end of last season. Ayers is a guy who is valued as high as #7 in some mocks to out of the first round in others. You can make the argument he is the most prototypical DE in the draft and Tampa will have a tough time ignoring his value at #19.
Why it doesn’t: They have a new coach and a new GM. No one really knows how they operate so anything is a possibility. WR is an option, RB could be hit on, I think Ayers is maybe the best player available so I’ll throw him there.
20) Detroit Lions – William Beatty, OT Connecticut
Why it makes sense: Since they are going to dump about $75 million into Stafford, they had better make sure he stays healthy. Choosing not to go O-Line with the #1 pick makes this pick an easy match. If one of the other four OT’s is around, I expect they’d go with them but Beatty has amazing size and strength and is rising on many draft boards. Dollars to doughnuts Buffalo will take him at #28 if he is still available.
Why it doesn’t: Playing at Connecticut doesn’t bring out the greatest competition. He manhandled much smaller DE’s in college so that is a concern. Detroit shouldn’t really be thinking about another position but the franchise that went 0-16 last year has made a lot of draft day errors over the years so who knows.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
Why it makes sense: Philly has been known to be targeting Moreno and will take him in about 15 seconds if he falls into their lap at #21. He is a very gifted runner who can transition into the starting RB spot as Westbrook winds down his fabulous career.
Why it doesn’t: Philly may like Beanie Wells more but probably not. If Moreno is available at #21, he will be the pick. If not, they may look to Vontae Davis, Darius Butler, or Brandon Pettigrew.
22) Minnesota Vikings – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
Why it makes sense: Bey is exactly the speedy type of big play threat that Minnesota needs to stretch the field to make room for Mr. Everything Adrian Peterson.
Why it doesn’t: I really have to think WR is the position here. There are other WR options but I just think Heyward-Bey is the best one available.
23) New England Patriots – Darius Butler, CB Connecticut
Why it makes sense: Bill Bellicheck personally went to the Connecticut Pro Day to see Butler and the hoodie doesn’t go to pro days without intent, especially Connecticut’s pro day. The Patriots have a rapidly aging secondary that struggled at times last year.
Why it doesn’t: New England is always a threat to trade down so don’t dismiss that possibility. Beanie Wells is still available and Jerry Peria would be very tempting here as well. Whatever they do with this pick will probably be right. No one, besides maybe the Colts, gets draft day right as often as the Patriots do.
24) Atlanta Falcons – Jerry Peria, DT Mississippi
Why it makes sense: I thought Atlanta would take TE Brandon Pettigrew with this pick but they traded for Tony Gonzalez about ten minutes ago. So Peria is arguably the best player left and Atlanta doesn’t need to worry about their offense with Matty Ice at the helm, so picking up an anchor in the middle of the defense will go a long way in improving Atlanta’s team.
Why it doesn’t: Maybe Matty Ice wants some more weapons at WR or RB with the talent still available at those positions. Ultimately, the Falcons have more to worry about than weapons right now and Peria could be the steal of the draft at #24.
25) Miami Dolphins -Hakeem Nicks, WR North Carolina
Why it makes sense: This is another pick that I really struggled with. Bill Parcells is a tough nut to crack when it comes to evaluating talent. He usually makes the safe pick after a ton of due diligence (And he asks more questions than anyone in football). So Nicks is the kind of guy Parcells would typically not draft but I think his explosiveness is needed in the ever improving AFC East.
Why it doesn’t: Brandon Pettigrew has to be an option. Maybe a different WR. Maualuga is still out there. Vontae Davis has a ton of talent but is the kind of guy Parcells avoids. Again like I said, Bill Parcells is tough to predict, the Nicks guess is exactly that, no more than a guess.
26) Baltimore Ravens – Ray Maualuga, LB USC
Why it makes sense: Baltimore just won’t be able to bypass Ray after losing Bart Scott and with Ray Lewis aging quickly. Ray’s a flashy linebacker with a ton of upside. I don’t necessarily believe he will fall this far in the draft but this is my assessment of him. He goes for the big play too often, isn’t as fundamentally strong in tackling, and could be a potential headache for an organization.
Why it doesn’t: The Ravens could definitely go WR to help give promising young QB Joe Flacco more help in his development. Beanie Wells or Donald Brown could be an option with the rumors that Willis McGahee is being shopped around and or released.
27) Indianapolis Colts – Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, RB Ohio State
Why it makes sense: Joseph Addai is coming off a very down year and the Colts just let Dominic Rhodes walk to Buffalo. There aren’t a ton of holes on this team but RB is an area that needs to be addressed.
Why it doesn’t: The Colts may go O-Line or WR to replace Marvin Harrison. Whatever they do, I’m sure they’ll do it right. Bill Polian has to be regarded as one of, if not the, best executives in all of football.
28) Buffalo Bills – Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma
Why it makes sense: If Pettigrew somehow slides all the way to Buffalo at #28, I will sing and dance through the streets. The guy who they thought about taking at #11 is still there. Atlanta was a team that might have taken him but the addition of Tony Gonzalez signals they’re looking elsewhere. I am really, really high on Pettigrew as he is an excellent blocker with big size and underrated as a pass catching option. Trent Edwards straight gets a chubby if Pettigrew drops this far.
Why it doesn’t: Assuming he is still available, he will undoubtedly be the pick. This of course leaves the OT position still unfilled. If Beatty is still around he will be an option as could Eben Britton from Arizona.
29) New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR Rutgers
Why it makes sense: Assuming the deal for Braylon Edwards is off the table, and it sounds like it is, the Giants will need to address the WR position after cutting Plaxico Burress. Without Burress the Giants were noticably worse during the end of the season. Britt is my top WR available and thus has to be the pick.
Why it doesn’t: If they do swing the trade for Edwards, this pick will go to Cleveland. Who then will have to think about addressing offensive line with someone like Eben Britton or a WR like Britt or Percy Harvin to replace Braylon “Drops” Edwards.
30) Tennessee Titans – Sean Smith, CB Utah
Why it makes sense: Smith is an extremely physically gifted corner with big size and excellent coverage instincts. Tennessee can only improve by taking him at #30.
Why it doesn’t: There are some quiet concerns for the Titans. QB will need to be addressed, a WR addition would be welcomed, and Eben Britton remains an attractive option for any team at this point.
31) Arizona Cardinals – Ziggy Hood, DT Missouri
Why it makes sense: The Cardinals need to improve their defense if they have any hopes of returning to the Super Bowl. Hood is a great player who is excellent in run defense and has the strength to get his fair share of sacks.
Why it doesn’t: The Cardinals may want to address RB as Donald Brown is still available or corner with Vontae Davis still lingering around.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers – Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
Why it makes sense: If Vontae really slips this far Pittsburgh will be forced to take him. After losing Bryant McFadden, CB is arguably the team’s biggest need. The assumption is that Pittsburgh will take either C’s Max Unger or Alex Mack with this pick but Davis would be a nice gift to a team that hardly needs any gifts.
Why it doesn’t: Davis has potential character issues but Mike “Money” Tomlin would easily extinguish those flames. Expect one of the two centers with this pick if Davis is off the board.
And there you have it! I’m not sure how draft day will play out because that is what makes it fun. Hope I was able to let you know more about some of the prospects available and where your team may be looking come Saturday.
LET’S GO BUFFALO!