When it was announced two week ago that Steve Jobs was not going to deliver this year’s Macworld keynote for the first time since he returned to the company he co-founded with Woz, the interwebs went abuzz that Steve’s cancer must have returned.

Instead of Jobs, delivering this year’s supposedly final Macworld keynote is Phil Schiller, Apple’s senior VP of worldwide product marketing. Who by all means would be on a very worthy short list of potential successors to Steve. Him or Ives would be the choice in my humble opinion.

Steve Jobs is leaving Apple. Not tomorrow, but probably very soon. And that is what I really believe regardless of how many PR blurbs come out otherwise.

At the very, very best, this is another step in the direction of Steve Jobs retiring, and the company preparing the world for an Apple without Steve. I don’t really want to think about the worst, but it is hard not to.

Apple’s official claim for Jobs cancellation is that Apple is pulling out of MacWorld altogether next year anyway. What we have seen happen in the last few years is Apple use the internet and their marketing dollars to reach the mainstream without the mainstream press. They probably don’t need Macworld or that major expense, even if Apple can afford it. Apple’s launched plenty of product at Cupertino HQ recently and they’ve all done well, and on Apple’s own timetable. (Macworld is in January, at the slump of the retail world’s cycle.) Essentially they don’t need MacWorld anymore to hype their products. Apple isn’t a nerd company anymore as much as they think they are. They are mainstream, Eastview Mall, suburban teenie bopper mainstream.

But again I don’t buy that as the reason. Apple, and moreover Mr. Jobs, have treated MacWorld as their baby for the past decade, using the keynote to deliver the company’s prized new products.

Is it money?

This opaque announcement is more mysterious, and uncertainties tend to be more troubling than truths, even hard ones. If Steve really is worth $20 billion to Apple’s market cap, once the news spreads, expect it to plummet further, faster. An iPhone delay rumor might knock off a few billion, but the suddenly realer than ever possibility Apple’s wizard-in-chief really is about to fade into the night—something that spooked traders even when Jobs actually did make an appearance—is an even more drastic event.

But as plausible as those scenarios are, I really think they are merely disguising the truth. Even if Steve is 100% healthy, this is a sad end of an era at Apple. Jobs returned to the company in 1997 when Apple was essentially floundering with almost zero market share and hints of bankruptcy. Every year the company has grown stronger with him back at the helm.

When he appeared last year looking very skinny, people immediately assumed the worst. But Steve joked about his rumored illness, gave a full Steve Jobs keynote, and joked and looked healthy enough to diminish those rumors.

But this sudden, dramatic announcement says to some, loudly and unfortunately clearly, that Jobs’ health has taken a significant dive since his appearance introducing the new MacBooks. Anyone that knows Jobs, knows he is a control freak that oozes passion and confidence. If this really was Apple leaving MacWorld, he would want to give the final keynote. At least a brief, headlining appearance Jobs, followed by a team effort announcing new products—if for no other reason than to dispel the alarm that’s already shaking the internet, but also to make the transition even smoother.

But taking the optimism with the rationale came a report this week from Gizmodo.com’s “Apple DeepThroat” source. Apple is very, very tightlipped. This source has only spoken to the site a very few number of times, and each time was 100% accurate on product launches, product details, and screenshots of products.

He said to Gizmodo, “Steves health is rapidly declining. Apple is choosing to remove the hype factor strategically vs letting the hype destroy apple when the inevitable news comes later this spring.This strategic loss will be less of a bang with investors. This is why Macworld is a no-go anymore. No more Steve means no more hype. Saying they are no longer needing [Macworld] is the cover designed by the worldwide “loyalty” department.”

When he says that, I can only hope he means Jobs retiring from Apple on his own accord. Steve Jobs’ health is nobody’s business, not the press, not investors, not the public. But it doesn’t seem like good news.

Steve Jobs have been giving Macworld Expo keynotes since he came back as interim CEO of the company in 1997. Since then he has never failed once, always introducing notable products both at Macworld San Francisco and Macworld New York. During his latest Macworld keynote, in 2008, he introduced the MacBook Air. Later this year, he used his WWDC presentation to announce the new iPhone 3G. He has been shunning the limelight more toward his pals basically trying to say, “Hey, look, Apple is more than Steve. These are The Guys, the Goodfellas, the A-Team. They share the same vision I have. And they are going to push the company forward when I change my office chair for a hammock and caipirinhas on my private beach in Hawaii.”

Love him or hate him, Steve Jobs is probably the single person most responsible for personal computing proliferation. He sold the idea of everyday people using computers. That alone makes him iconic. So maybe Apple’s official announcements are true. Or maybe, as being worried, Mr. Jobs is fading on us fast. Both are possible. But both paths lead down the road to a future without Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple, Inc.