Week 11 picks: 8 – 7 – 1

Season total: 79 – 78 – 3

Sports Meister: 83 – 75 – 2

Sports Guy: 92 – 68 – 3

Packers (-12) over Lions

V is for victory.

Raiders (+14) over Cowboys

F is for failure.

Giants (-6) over Broncos

There was a brief moment here where I said to myself, “There is no way I’m picking games again next year.”

Falcons (-12) over Yucks

Matty Ice and Roddy White at home against Tampa is exactly what this Atlanta team needs. I’m not sure where they line up in the playoff pecking order anymore, but I do know they need to be in the discussion.

Bills (+4) over Dolphins

Miami never travels here well and the Bills are playing with some passion under Perry Fewell. I don’t really think Fewell is the longterm solution, but he’s a likable guy and the players work hard for him. Hopefully we still have some cojones and can beat our deepest rival.

Bengals (-13) over Browns

It will be interesting to see how Cincinnati plays here down the stretch. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, but can they keep it up when the pressure is on? We know Big Ben can. We know Manning can. We know Brady can. Can Carson Palmer finally get over the hump and be an elite closer? That my friends, is why they play the game.

Seattle (-4) over Rams

A few weeks ago, I called Steven Jackson “overrated”. What I meant was the praise of him couldn’t help St. Louis win a game anytime soon. Jackson doesn’t have the national attention of Peterson or CJ, but his ability to combine speed and physicality make him one of football’s better pure backs. That said, he can’t help the Rams win.

Panthers (+3) over Jets

Two teams that I just can’t nail down. If I were to simply guess, I’d say a high percentage of my losses this year came from games with Carolina, New York (both), Arizona, Green Bay, San Diego, Detroit and San Francisco. Just couldn’t find a medium anywhere on their performance. Either too high or too low depending on the team.

Eagles (-9) over Redskins

I’m still buying Philly stock because they still have Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb. They haven’t lived up to my expectations but there is a lot of football to be played. Other note, Bill Cowher told the Bills he wouldn’t interview with any franchise until after the season. Nice answer, my question is, had Dan Snyder fired Jim Zorn before the Bills fired Dick Jauron, would Cowher have met with the Redskins about an opening? Think it over.

Colts (-4) over Texans

The fact that this line is close is a testament to how good Houston is. They haven’t been able to put it all together but they’re a very dangerous team at this point in the season. Can we say enough about the Colts? 10-0. Most winningest team this decade, a MVP frontrunner at quarterback, and a zen like rookie head coach that has ‘Coach of the Year’ written all over him. The quest for 16-0 goes through Kubiak and Co today.

Chiefs (+14) over Chargers

Jamaal Charles has stepped in nicely for Larry Johnson. Chris Chambers seems to have found a nice landing spot with Matt Cassell tossing the rock, and I still really dislike San Diego.

Jaguars (-4) over 49ers

I think the San Francisco playoff talk is just about over. I think Singletary represents a strong future leadership, they have pieces on offense, and their defense will only get better. The Jets, 49ers, Broncos, and maybe Falcons/Texans are all close, but a few years away. I like Jack Del Rio to lead this Jacksonville team on a strong push for postseason contention.

Cardinals (+4) over Titans

Vince Young is 4-0 since returning as the starter and Chris Johnson might be the best back in football, but I’m still selling Vince Young stock. But I’m buying Jeff Fisher and Tennessee stock. The organization is too well run and too talented at key positions to let failure linger too long. They might be able to pawn off Young for some draft picks and go and get their future guy. I think Arizona sends the Titans back to reality a bit this afternoon.

Vikings (-11) over Bears

Brett Favre is approaching 300 straight NFL starts. Yes he is a quarterback and recent rule have changed to really protect the quarterback, but Favre was around far before then. It isn’t easy to stay healthy in this league. Charlie Batch came in for Ben and broke his wrist in a few plays. Favre was 88% last week and in the run for a league MVP award over 10 years after his last one. I wouldn’t really want to have a beer with the guy, but he’s a professional in every sense of the word, and that needs to be respected.

Ravens (-7.5) over Steelers

News that Big Ben was holding himself out of this week’s game due to a concussion last week sent this line up 7 points almost instantly. I love Dennis Dixon and his playing days at Oregon, but this isn’t Stanford, it is Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Good luck kid.

Patriots (+3) over Saints

What a game for Monday Night Football! Without question two of the league’s best teams matchup here. I’m going to go with Belicheck/Brady over Payton/Brees, if only by the slimmest of margins. This could be a potential Super Bowl preview, keep that in mind. Enjoy this and all the games you get to see.

Picking NFL games against the spread is just plain frustrating. I started this year so well, and coupled with relative success in my two fantasy leagues, I was able to enjoy football to a degree despite being a Bills fan (Jauron firing post coming soon). Well, that early picks success has completely eroded and the last few weeks have become a tire-fire of fail. Hopefully I can get back on the winning track today.

Last week: 4 – 10 – 1 (Ouchhh)

Season total: 71 – 71 – 2

Sports Meister: 75 – 67 – 1

Sports Guy: 84 – 59 – 3

Panthers (-3) over Dolphins

Is there a single NFL team harder to figure out in 2009 than Carolina? And how about Ricky Williams? Still doing it folks!

Redskins (+11) over Cowboys

I’m going to radically shake up my picks this week. You’ll see where I’m going here.

Lions (-4) over Browns

Probably the single worst football game in NFL history. There is a rule in life for businesses and sports teams, “If you’re not going to be good, be interesting.” These teams are neither.

49ers (+6) over Packers

Both teams are in a must-win situation if they have any tangible playoff aspirations, common sense says that Green Bay will get the job done in Lambeau, but like I said, I’m shaking things up this week. Coach Singletary FTW.

Steelers (-10) over Chiefs

Kansas City remains winless at home and I’m tempted to take them with the points. Problem is, Big Ben and the Stillers have been airing the rock this year and I don’t think the Chiefs have the personnel to keep up or score the points to stay with Money Tomlin and Co.

Vikings (-11) over Seahawks

I traded Steve Smith of the Giants (Who at the time was #1 in receptions and #2 in yards) for Brett Favre in my fantasy league. I essentially didn’t feel comfortable with Kyle Orton going into the playoffs. Sydney Rice is emerging as an elite NFL talent, #28 in the backfield keeps defenses close, Papa Shiancoe is a reliable outlet for Favre, and their defense led by SwingStock MVP Jared Allen is dirty, especially at home. The Vikings look like the team to beat in the NFC. Sorry Saints.

Falcons (+7) over Giants

I can’t believe Atlanta didn’t beat the Panthers last week, I just can’t believe it. If there was one game I would have bet the farm on, that would have been it. Fortunately I don’t actually bet so the farm is still in tact. BTW, send chickens and I need neighbors! /s

Saints (-11) over Yucks

The Saints need a statement game for people to quit doubting them. A recently victorious Tampa team seems like a good target for Brees and the bunch to really light it up.

Bills (+9) over Jaguars

I can’t tell you how many ways this pick is awful. Buffalo ranks #32 against the run, they’re without their best defensive lineman, and playing against an elite runner in Jones-Drew. Not to mention they have a new coach and a new QB with a wet noodle for an arm. Yeah, this pick is just atrocious. Just so so bad on so levels. It is unjustifiable.

Colts (+2.5) over Ravens

I know Baltimore is a strong team, but a home favorite versus Peyton Manning the rest of the 9-0 Colts? Really? A final word on last week’s great Patriots-Colts game (Which I wrote last week if you were going to watch one game all year, that was it), I have fumbled with an opinion on Belicheck’s decision to go for it on 4th and two. The case against is clear: You make Manning go ~75 yards to beat you. He’d struggled that half and more importantly, it is the normal football decision. But here is the case for going for it where I ultimately stand on the topic: Not enough coaches in the NFL coach to win. It seems like such a basic philosophy but you don’t see it played out too often. Coaches coach not to lose. They play it smart, conservative playcalling, and play the battle of field position. Coach Bil going for it to win the game is a call I love and I wish more coaches would act accordingly. It played out wrong in this one, but the underlying strategy and philosophy makes sense in the long run. “You play to win the game!”

Cardinals (-9) over Rams

Kurt Warner back in St. Louis? On that turf? With those wideouts?

Broncos (+6) over Chargers

Denver needs a win like Ricky Martin need a hit. Ricky and the Broncos are gonna be livin la vida busto.

Bengals (-10) over Raiders

I guess it is time I give Cincinnati some credit where credit is due. I was sure that Marvin Lewis was done and that Carson Palmer coming off an injury coupled with the loss of TJ Whosyadaddy would be a surefire disaster for the Bengals. I was wrong. Their young defense is amongst the league’s best and their veteran QB is guiding them across stormy seas. I have to question why they’d bring in a potential turmoil starter like Larry Johnson when they are riding so high.

Patriots (-10.5) over Jets

Belicheck and Brady are going to take out last week’s disappointment and subsequent week-long media bashing on the Jets this week. Despite Rex Ryan’s defense being a strong bunch (Rhodes, Revis, and Scott are all Pro Bowl talents), the Patriots have a way about them to win games when they need to.

Eagles (-3) over Bears

Maybe I’m wrong about Philadelphia, but I know I’m not wrong about Chicago. The Bears lack an identity this season with Cutler taking away from Forte’s production, no real legitimate downfield targets for Cutler, and a defense that is a poor shade of its former self.

Texans (-5) over Titans

Maybe Bud Adams will flip off the entire city of Houston. Oh, he already kind of did that once. If anyone can bottle up Chris Johnson, the front-seven of Houston may be able to, couple that with pressure on Vince Young and the ability of the Texans to stretch the Titans’ defense? Looks like a win for Kubiak and co. Enjoy the footyball folks, it’s halfway over already.

Last week: 5 – 8

Season total: 67 – 61 – 1

Sports Meister: 68 – 57 – 1

Sports Guy: 76 – 52 – 2

49ers (-3) over Bears

I think I’m finally going to get off the “Chicago Might Be Good” gravy train. They suck. There is an obvious need at WR but the offensive line may be the bigger problem for Chicago. When Devin Hester is your best receiver and Brian Urlacher suffers a season-ending injury, you have the makings of a pretty brutal season going forward.

Titans (-6) over Bills

Do I think Buffalo can stop Chris Johnson? No I do not. Am I surprised that a 2-6 team is laying 6 against Buffalo? No I am not. Trent Edwards has eight games to prove he can be the Bills QB next year. You know it is bad as a Bills fan when I am looking forward to only two things in this game: 1) To see Vince Young play again 2) To see if Jairus Byrd can get another interception.

Saints (-14) over Rams

Basically the ’09 Saints remind me very much of the very talented ’99 Rams. The current St. Louis Ram is a complete mess of a franchise. Just no end of suck in sight. They are top-to-bottom bad and their running back is overrated. Why would Spagnuolo even leave the Giants for this team? Is getting a Head Coaching gig THAT good? Josh McDaniels is the smart one here (That seems to be a trend), he had offers to be a head coach but waited until a respectable and well-run organization came knocking. Coaches, and all of us really, need to evaluate if the grass is going to be any greener on the other side of the fence.

Dolphins (-10) over Yucks

Am I excited about Miami laying 10? No, I don’t care who they’re playing. Stay far away from this game, I don’t care how sure you are that Miami will run all over Tampa, this line is genuinely frightening. Someone is going to lose a house and a marriage over this game.

Vikings (-17) over Lions

What’d I say last week? I said I was done picking the Lions to cover. Sure enough, I thought I was an idiot per usual when the Lions trailed by 5 and were driving for the win. Oh, and then they realized they were the Lions and Stafford threw a pick six and they lost by 12. They were getting 11 points of course. That my friends is what they call a bad-beat. Score prediction: 52-10 (Note: I just traded for Brett Faveruh at my fantasy trade deadline. Right in time for his late season collapse. I hate myself).

Jaguars (+7) over Jets

How indicative is it of current media’s 24/7 instant rush-to-judgment state when a month ago we were ready to put Mark Sanchez in Canton and now are having discussions if Kellen Clemens should replace him? I just hate the Jets so I’ll pick the road warriors getting seven. MJD vs Bart Scott in an MMA bout would garner 100M PPV buys right? Would it at least outsell Pacquiao vs Cotto? Me thinks yes.

Steelers (-7) over Bengals

I just flipped a coin to pick this game. Both teams are playing really good football and saying, “We are good teams! Pay attention to us!” They are both good teams staying under the radar but have yet to convince people they are the best in the league. The Steelers just have something about them that refuses to lose. There is a point in their games when they turn on the “We’re winning this game” switch and you just have to sit back and let them. Is there a more underrated duo in the NFL than Tomlin/Roethlisberger? I mean, c’monnnn.

Broncos (-4) over Redskins

Denver isn’t elite but they can still cover four versus a dysfunctional Washington squad. If I were a Skins fan, I’d really hate football right about now. Oh yeah, even worse, I’m a Bills fan. Moving along.

Falcons (-2) over Panthers

How in the hell is this line only two points? The Falcons are GOOD. Playoff good. Where’s the respect oddsmakers? Their three losses are against New England, New Orleans, and Dallas! They’re good! Excellent point made by my cousin, “You know how I know Michael Vick sucks as a quarterback? He made Roddy White irrelevant. When Matt Ryan came in, Roddy White became a Pro-Bowler.”

Raiders (-2) over Chiefs

Remember when these two franchises meant something to the NFL? The tomahawk chop in KC versus the loathed silver and black. I’m really glad I don’t have to watch this game. Todd Haley will get it together in Kansas City, he’s a smart guy, but Oakland has to get rid of Cable, who in that front office is actually vouching for this guy? Their fanbase is on the brink, their stadium is less family friendly than even Bills games, and their quarterback is less accurate than a High School backup.

Cowboys (-3) over Packers

I’m not sure but this might be the first time all year I have picked Dallas to win a spread. I’ll get the Elias Sports Bureau on that for you but in the mean time, I must note how much I dislike Dallas. Watching Tony Romo inevitably fail will make the whole NFL season worthwhile. The Packers unfortunately aren’t as good as we (I) thought.

Cardinals (-9) over Seahawks

Two or three points high for my liking but Arizona still has one of the better aerial attacks in the NFL versus a weak Seattle defense. I can’t really figure out either of these teams. All year I’d be sure they’re among many of my wrong picks. I have no feel or expectations week-to-week as to what they’re capable of. If Arizona can get any kind of run game going, they could make a late season run similar to last season.

Eagles (+1) over Chargers

I still really like Philadelphia’s team. I still don’t like San Diego and Norv Turner.

Colts (-3) over Patriots

Without question, the NFL’s best rivalry. Has been for the last ten years. They have been the two best teams in football for a decade with two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. I think Peyton Manning is just about the nicest guy you could ever meet, but something tells me that he hates the Patriots. Remember how intense he was when his brother Eli beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl? You’d think Peyton just won. I think he was more excited to see the Patriots lose than see his brother win. I don’t think the Patriots have the defensive personnel to stop the Colts. Should be a great game, if you’re going to watch any football game all year, this is the one to see.

Ravens (-11) over Browns

I feel for Browns fans. I get it. There is a sense of despair and no real hope for anything to change. There is turmoil at quarterback, a head coach who won’t be around much longer, a beatdown defensive unit, and a struggling fanbase clinging to the last bit of devotion for a franchise they once loved…but enough about the Bills.

We are now halfway through the 2009 NFL season. The NFL moves quickly, which sucks, but is also why it is so popular. It is really easy to be an NFL fan. Games are once a week, short in comparison to other sports, and on Sunday afternoons. Unless you’re a diehard NASCAR fan, you’re probably an NFL fan, or both with dat dang dum dar PIP on dem TV’s nowadays.

When I meet Yankee “fans” (You know who I’m talking about- fitted cap, doesn’t know who our 2nd starter is), I understand because baseball is such a difficult sport to follow unless you really love it. Half the country doesn’t even watch baseball- if you were in California last week, you were watching the Lakers, not Phillies-Yankees. Whereas the NFL is beloved by all, and that’s what makes it so, so great of a game to follow.

1st-half MVP: Peyton Manning

Last week I called him the “Best Quarterback of All-Time”, I’m really ready to start having this argument. He isn’t having a bonkers season by any means but he stands above everyone else especially the way Peterson and Brees have cooled off. Someone will probably emerge late in the season to compete with Mr. Manning.

1st-half Rookie: Percy Harvin

I think it is time to deflect any criticism of college players leaving school early to go pro. I present to you the case of Harvin vs Sam Bradford. Brett Favuruh doesn’t hurt either.

1st-half Coach: Sean Payton

At the helm of the best team in the league. Personally reduced his own salary to bring in Gregg Williams knowing his defense needed work to be an elite team, and the Saints are on cruise control right now. They have a veteran QB, explosive playmakers, are solid in the trenches, and have an emerging defense.

I think there are seven teams that can win the Super Bowl at this point. I’d be really surprised if someone other than these ballclubs win it all: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Baltimore Ravens. Not in any particular order that is. Notice I didn’t mention Denver or the Giants.

Week 8 Picks: 5 – 8

Season Total: 62 -53 – 1

Sports Meister: 63 – 51 – 1

Sports Guy: 68 – 47 – 1

Falcons (-10) over Redskins

I think Atlanta is a playoff team. So along with Atlanta, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Arizona/San Francisco… who’s the last NFC playoff team? Dallas? Zona/San Fran? Giants? Bears? Packers? Conversely, it is pretty clear Jim Zorn won’t be back Washington next season. So who’ll replace him? Holmgren won’t because of how Snyder treated Zorn. Cowher won’t because he is looking at a cushy job in Carolina. Shanahan won’t because he’s reportedly already turned Snyder down twice this season. So who will it be?

Bears (-3) over Cardinals

Arizona has looked good in recent weeks and Chicago needs a statement game at home. Cutler can get it rolling against a soft Arizona secondary and let the faithful at Soldier Field breathe easy heading into next week at 5-3, not 4-4.

Ravens (-3) over Bengals

I just don’t see Cincinnati beating Baltimore twice this year. I said above, the Ravens are one of seven teams right now I think can win the Super Bowl, so I have to pick them.

Texans (+9) over Colts

Really a pickem’ matchup at this line. I have no idea who will cover but I do think that Indy is the better team and will probably win, especially at home. I think Houston is a good team however so I’ll go with them getting the nine.

Patriots (-11) over Dolphins

New England is basically in “eff you” mode right now so I am just going to pick them going forward versus anyone giving up however many points.

Packers (-10) over Yucks

I don’t know if this speaks volumes to how bad Tampa is, but if this game were in Green Bay and not in Florida, I might take Tampa getting the points. Since the game is in Tampa, I know the Yucks have zero chance of containing Driver and Jennings with Rodgers looking for a bounce back game.

Jaguars (-6.5) over Chiefs

At some point this year, Jacksonville is going to play like a team without their collective heads stuffed you-know-where. I don’t know if this is the game, but you have to think they can clear 6.5 at home versus a very bad Kansas City team.

Seahawks (-10) over Lions

I have trusted Detroit one too many times this year already to cover for me and they haven’t been able to pull through. I can’t believe I’m laying ten with Seattle but I am done with Detroit, let’s go Hawks!

Panthers (+14) over Saints

Just a weird gut feeling upset pick. Carolina on turf can score some points, the key is, will they be able to stop the Saints offense…at all? Yeah, probably not, but I’m stupid remember.

Giants (-5) over Chargers

These teams are pretty well-matched. I like Eli > Rivers, and Coughlin > Norv. So there, I rest my case.

49ers (-5) over Titans

Maybe I’m foolish for dogging Vince Young two weeks in a row, but can he possibly play well against San Francisco’s defense? On another note, Chris Johnson is an absolute monster back. The guards are lined up in the backfield. And the quarterback isn’t even there!

Eagles (-3) over Cowboys

I know Dallas is playing well, but I’d take Philly even if they were giving up 8 or 9 in this one.

Steelers (-3) over Broncos

Tomlin and McDaniels might be my two favorite coaches in the NFL but Pittsburgh just has a better team. Enjoy week 9 playas.