Week 11 NFL Picks

Picking NFL games against the spread is just plain frustrating. I started this year so well, and coupled with relative success in my two fantasy leagues, I was able to enjoy football to a degree despite being a Bills fan (Jauron firing post coming soon). Well, that early picks success has completely eroded and the last few weeks have become a tire-fire of fail. Hopefully I can get back on the winning track today.

Last week: 4 – 10 – 1 (Ouchhh)

Season total: 71 – 71 – 2

Sports Meister: 75 – 67 – 1

Sports Guy: 84 – 59 – 3

Panthers (-3) over Dolphins

Is there a single NFL team harder to figure out in 2009 than Carolina? And how about Ricky Williams? Still doing it folks!

Redskins (+11) over Cowboys

I’m going to radically shake up my picks this week. You’ll see where I’m going here.

Lions (-4) over Browns

Probably the single worst football game in NFL history. There is a rule in life for businesses and sports teams, “If you’re not going to be good, be interesting.” These teams are neither.

49ers (+6) over Packers

Both teams are in a must-win situation if they have any tangible playoff aspirations, common sense says that Green Bay will get the job done in Lambeau, but like I said, I’m shaking things up this week. Coach Singletary FTW.

Steelers (-10) over Chiefs

Kansas City remains winless at home and I’m tempted to take them with the points. Problem is, Big Ben and the Stillers have been airing the rock this year and I don’t think the Chiefs have the personnel to keep up or score the points to stay with Money Tomlin and Co.

Vikings (-11) over Seahawks

I traded Steve Smith of the Giants (Who at the time was #1 in receptions and #2 in yards) for Brett Favre in my fantasy league. I essentially didn’t feel comfortable with Kyle Orton going into the playoffs. Sydney Rice is emerging as an elite NFL talent, #28 in the backfield keeps defenses close, Papa Shiancoe is a reliable outlet for Favre, and their defense led by SwingStock MVP Jared Allen is dirty, especially at home. The Vikings look like the team to beat in the NFC. Sorry Saints.

Falcons (+7) over Giants

I can’t believe Atlanta didn’t beat the Panthers last week, I just can’t believe it. If there was one game I would have bet the farm on, that would have been it. Fortunately I don’t actually bet so the farm is still in tact. BTW, send chickens and I need neighbors! /s

Saints (-11) over Yucks

The Saints need a statement game for people to quit doubting them. A recently victorious Tampa team seems like a good target for Brees and the bunch to really light it up.

Bills (+9) over Jaguars

I can’t tell you how many ways this pick is awful. Buffalo ranks #32 against the run, they’re without their best defensive lineman, and playing against an elite runner in Jones-Drew. Not to mention they have a new coach and a new QB with a wet noodle for an arm. Yeah, this pick is just atrocious. Just so so bad on so levels. It is unjustifiable.

Colts (+2.5) over Ravens

I know Baltimore is a strong team, but a home favorite versus Peyton Manning the rest of the 9-0 Colts? Really? A final word on last week’s great Patriots-Colts game (Which I wrote last week if you were going to watch one game all year, that was it), I have fumbled with an opinion on Belicheck’s decision to go for it on 4th and two. The case against is clear: You make Manning go ~75 yards to beat you. He’d struggled that half and more importantly, it is the normal football decision. But here is the case for going for it where I ultimately stand on the topic: Not enough coaches in the NFL coach to win. It seems like such a basic philosophy but you don’t see it played out too often. Coaches coach not to lose. They play it smart, conservative playcalling, and play the battle of field position. Coach Bil going for it to win the game is a call I love and I wish more coaches would act accordingly. It played out wrong in this one, but the underlying strategy and philosophy makes sense in the long run. “You play to win the game!”

Cardinals (-9) over Rams

Kurt Warner back in St. Louis? On that turf? With those wideouts?

Broncos (+6) over Chargers

Denver needs a win like Ricky Martin need a hit. Ricky and the Broncos are gonna be livin la vida busto.

Bengals (-10) over Raiders

I guess it is time I give Cincinnati some credit where credit is due. I was sure that Marvin Lewis was done and that Carson Palmer coming off an injury coupled with the loss of TJ Whosyadaddy would be a surefire disaster for the Bengals. I was wrong. Their young defense is amongst the league’s best and their veteran QB is guiding them across stormy seas. I have to question why they’d bring in a potential turmoil starter like Larry Johnson when they are riding so high.

Patriots (-10.5) over Jets

Belicheck and Brady are going to take out last week’s disappointment and subsequent week-long media bashing on the Jets this week. Despite Rex Ryan’s defense being a strong bunch (Rhodes, Revis, and Scott are all Pro Bowl talents), the Patriots have a way about them to win games when they need to.

Eagles (-3) over Bears

Maybe I’m wrong about Philadelphia, but I know I’m not wrong about Chicago. The Bears lack an identity this season with Cutler taking away from Forte’s production, no real legitimate downfield targets for Cutler, and a defense that is a poor shade of its former self.

Texans (-5) over Titans

Maybe Bud Adams will flip off the entire city of Houston. Oh, he already kind of did that once. If anyone can bottle up Chris Johnson, the front-seven of Houston may be able to, couple that with pressure on Vince Young and the ability of the Texans to stretch the Titans’ defense? Looks like a win for Kubiak and co. Enjoy the footyball folks, it’s halfway over already.