Week 14 NFL Picks

Jeff "The Real Situation" Reed

Last week: 8 – 8

Season total: 93 – 96 – 3

Sports Meister: 99 – 91 – 2

Sports Guy: 101 – 88 – 3

Browns (+13) over Steelers

I expected the Browns to get close to their cover at home in bad weather on a short week. I didn’t expect them to win. To see the Steelers lose five straight games just doesn’t seem real. They’re officially out of the playoffs with their remaining schedule, their interior lines have corroded, and questions remain across the board. They have pieces. They have coaching, a quarterback, skill players, a secondary, and less aging problems than other teams of their caliber- so what is it? The kickoff coverage might be the worst in NFL history for starters. Big Ben’s concussion should draw some concerns. Hines Ward calling out his QB isn’t Steelers typical. Sometimes things just don’t go right. The 2009 Steelers just didn’t go right.

Saints (-11.5) over Falcons

Last week I picked the Falcons at home because they were undefeated there. They lost 34-7 to Andy Reid’s perpetual cycle of success. So this week, I go back to the VP of Common Sense and realize Chris Redman isn’t a very good QB. Matty Ice has to be excited about Gillette dropping Tiger. And Sean Payton has said publicly his team will try to go 16-0. So, sorry to Atlanta and their generically named Head Coach.

Packers (-4.5)  over Bears

Chalk this seemingly too close line to division rivals in December always playing a tough game. The Packers are clearly the better  unit and seem to be playoff bound. Their record isn’t even indicative of how good it could be with tough losses early in the season. Clay Matthews has to be the front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year right?

Colts (-7) over Broncos

I’ve been pushing the “Peyton Manning is the best QB ever” card heavily this year and the movement got its first piece of traction this week. Former Colt WR (and current Bronco) Brandon Stokley echoed my sentiments. Mike Nolan has his hands full this week.

Chiefs (-1) over Bills

Here’s the dilemma: These are the types of games Buffalo wins. When they’re already gone from postseason discussion they beat teams and hurt their draft position. But the VP of Common Sense came knocking and told me the Bills have the league’s worst defense, Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, and are playing against a deceptively dangerous Kansas City offense with Cassel, Chambers, and Charles; or C cubed. Do I have to watch this game?

Vikings (-6.5) over Bengals

Nice match-up here. I like Cincinnati but I think Minnesota, and Favre in particular, need to make a statement game at home against a good foe to alleviate fan and media concerns. Not having Percy Harvin in the offensive mix should hurt downfield production but the Vikes still have #28 in the backfield.

Panthers (+13) over Patriots

Classic trap spread. Trouble in New England. Rumors of discipline concerns, broken relationships, etc. Then giving up 13 to a poor team. I have to pick Carolina but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Patriots win this game 48-13. Which would be a very bad happening since my #1 seeded Fightin Amish play against Tommy Terrific in the first round of my fantasy playoffs. BTW, Brady had a kid this week. It’ll look something between this and this. Take it easy out there Bill, don’t run it up, that child needs his Dad healthy, and I need him under 300 yards.

Jets (-3.5) over Yucks

The Jets will run the ball all day. Good news for them: Tampa can’t stop the run. Wondering if Tampa would remove Raheem Morris after only one year on the job. There is an abundance of free agent coaching talent currently out there.

Jaguars (+3.5) over Dolphins

I wonder how many fans will be at this game. 40,000? Seriously. Jacksonville has a decent run stop defense and I think largely Miami is overrated. These teams are very familiar to one another. From coaching to running backs to bland quarterbacks, to lack of WR talent, to above-average defenses. Should probably be a close game.

Lions (+14.5) over Ravens

Not really anything else here than a lack of respect for Baltimore’s offense and a chance to root for Detroit. Let’s go Lions! COVER PLEASE COVER!

Seahawks (+7.5) over Texans

I’m finally coming to grips with the failure of a season in Houston. Sorry Kubiak, but this team has the talent to go to the playoffs right now. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see owner Bob McNair pull the plug on Kubiak and get in on the quest for a coach carousel.

Titans (-13) over Rams

Chris Johnson > St. Louis’ entire 52-man roster

Raiders (+1) over Redskins

Remember when these were beloved and relevant franchises? Me neither.

Chargers (+3.5) over Cowboys

Great game. The difference? It’s Dallas in December and San Diego in December. Look that up and you’ll understand my pick.

Eagles (-1.5) over Giants

Colossal Sunday night game for battle position in the NFC East. This game is essentially rendered “must win” for both parties. The Giants were thoguht to be out of it but had a great win last week to keep them in the hunt. Philadelphia hasn’t really been the model of consistency this season, but they still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and the most underrated Coach/QB combo in NFL history. Chew on it.

Cardinals (-4) over 49ers

The Cardinals are rolling and we can finally put the dirt on the 2009 San Francisco season. I like what they’re doing with Coach Singletary and emerging player personnel. They need a franchise quarterback first and foremost which they’ll probably be able to address in the draft given the weak quarterback class that’ll be available. If they can grab Sam Bradford for example, they won’t hesitate to make that pick.